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Alan Rhoda
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   Posted 1/26/2010 5:28 PM (GMT -6)    Quote This PostAlert An Admin About This Post.
Molinism is billed by both proponents (Flint) and opponents (Hasker) as "the only game in town" if one wants to reconcile future contingency and exhaustive meticulous providence. I agree with this assessment, but I think the metaphysical difficulties facing the Molinist are far more serious than is commonly recognized.

One problem, which I mention only to set aside, is the grounding objection. Nothing, it seems, could "make true" the Molinist's counterfactuals of creaturely freedom (CCFs) and yet the commonsense assumption that "truth supervenes on being" would seem to require that CCFs have truthmakers. One Molinist response is simply to bite the bullet and admit CCFs as "brute facts".

The problem I want to focus on is a different one. I claim that Molinists face a dilemma: Either their scheme is incompatible with future contingency or it is incompatible with exhaustive meticulous providence.

First, some preliminaries:
1) By definition, the chance (single-case objective probability) of any future contingent event is greater than zero and less than one.
2) By definition, the chance of an event's occurring given that it falls within the scope of God's meticulous providence is one.
3) According to Molinism, all events that ever occur fall within the scope of God's meticulous providence.
4) Using CH() as the chance operator, the following argument is provably valid:

(a) CH(E occurs | God meticulously ordains that E occurs) = 1
(b) CH(God meticulously ordains that E occurs) = 1
Therefore,
(c) CH(E occurs) = 1

But if CH(E occurs) is 1, then E cannot be a future contingent. So if there are to be future contingents, then either (a) or (b) must be false for some E. (a), however, is true by definition of meticulous providence. So that leaves (b). Molinists, and all other advocates of future contingency, must reject this.

Open theists can reject (b) by simply denying that E falls within the scope of God's meticulous providence. For them, some events might be specifically decreed by God, but not necessarily all.

Molinists can't say that, however. Nevertheless, it seems that Molinists should be committed to the truth of (b). On their account, God's creative decree is explanatorily prior to any future event, and so, from the perspective of such events, God's creative decree would seem to be as settled as any "hard fact" about the distant past. Hence, CH(God meticulously ordains that E occurs) should equal 1. Or so one would think. But for the Molinist to admit this is to admit defeat. It is to admit that either future contingency or exhaustive meticulous providence has to go.

So the Molinist has to deny that God's creative decree is a "hard fact". The Molinist, in other words, has to say that what free choices we make can "bring it about that" God decrees the world that he has decreed. But then God's decrees lose all providential "bite". For even if God has decreed (based on my CCFs) that I will freely choose chocolate tomorrow, I nevertheless (by hypothesis) have it in my power to choose otherwise, and hence I have it in my power to bring it about that God has decreed something else (namely, that I choose vanilla tomorrow). To admit this, however, is to void God's decrees of any predictive weight whatsoever. Instead, what the decrees are is only established retroactively, in light of how all of the future contingents of history resolve themselves. As a consequence, Molinism is no more providentially useful for God than Ockhamism is.
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Tom
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   Posted 1/27/2010 2:23 AM (GMT -6)    Quote This PostAlert An Admin About This Post.

Alan, wouldn’t Molinists complain that your definitions beg the question regarding the relationship of CCFs to God’s providential decree? In other words, the LFW is already assumed in the CCFs that God chooses to instantiate. We argue that there are in fact no true CCFs, but doesn’t it have to be true that there are no true CCFs for your argument about meticulous providence to work? So this argument is only as successful as the argument against there being any true CCFs, right?

 

And wouldn’t libertarian Molinists say their understanding of meticulous providence is just a ‘bit’ different than that a non-Molinist Calvinist (so that “meticulous” doesn’t quite describe the same sort of thing for each)? For non-Molinist Calvinists, God’s providential decrees are constrained ONLY by logical possibility, while for Molinists God’s providential decrees and also constrained by the truth of CCFs (which are not determined by God). So the Molinist would argue that our freedom (via the CCFs) gets figured into the equation prior to God’s decrees and so plays its part in limiting God (beyond the limits of logical possibility) to which worlds God can choose to create. That would be a constraint the Calvinist will object to as ‘limiting’ God’s freedom and sovereignty in an unacceptable way. For the Calvinist “meticulous” encompasses his view of divine freedom/sovereignty unconstrained by any consideration of creaturely contributions (and the truth of CCFs would be considered a creaturely contribution or 'condition' upon God's decrees). The Molinist doesn’t believe God is THAT free and so can’t believe that “meticulous” represents THAT kind of providence. Sure, both can say of everything that occurs in the world that God decreed it, but for the Calvinists the decree is unconditioned by consideration of anything outside the will and good pleasure of God while for the Molinist the decree is conditioned by the truth of CCFs.

 

Does any of this make a difference to your argument though? I’m not sure (except perhaps for the fact that Molinists might object to your argument that there are unspoken premises that make it untrue, though formally valid).

 

Alan: But if CH(E occurs) is 1, then E cannot be a future contingent.

 

Tom: Don’t they try to argue that the ‘contingency’ of future contingents is definitionally figured into E via the truth of the CCF describing E?

 

Alan: Molinists can't say that, however. Nevertheless, it seems that Molinists should be committed to the truth of (b). On their account, God's creative decree is explanatorily prior to any future event…

 

Tom: While the CCFs describing those events are explanatorily prior to God’s decree, right?

 

Alan: So the Molinist has to deny that God's creative decree is a "hard fact". The Molinist, in other words, has to say that what free choices we make can "bring it about that" God decrees the world that he has decreed. But then God's decrees lose all providential "bite".

 

Tom: Ah, I forgot that Molinists deny that God’s decree is a ‘hard fact’. Interesting. Maybe here they’d skirt the criticism by saying that what you’re describing is our (temporally) lived experience of the (logical and atemporal) explanatory relation between the truth of CCFs and God’s decrees. In other words, we’re FEELING the explanatory priority which our freedom plays in God’s decree that we come to actually exist. That's the mystery we're experiencing. They’d argue perhaps that in a sense we DID tell God (providentially) what WOULD be in this actual world (via CCFs) but God freely decided that this world (of all the ‘would-worlds’ he had to choose among) would become the actual world. This is essentially the difference between what ‘meticulous’ betokens in an unconditional (Calvinistic) providence and a relatively conditional (Molinist) providence.

 

Tom

 

------------------

 

Oh...

 

Did you see Alex Pruss’s last post over at Prosblogion (Another argument against Molinism)? An interesting argument against Molinism. Maybe others here would be interested. Let me throw it up here (in blue):

 

Pruss: I shall use the phrase "non-derivatively libertarian-free" (NDLF) to describe a libertarian-free choice that does not inherit its freedom from earlier free actions. This corresponds to Kane's Self-Forming Actions. Now consider this plausible principle:


Thesis 1: If x NDLF-ly chooses A in circumstances C, and p is a proposition explanatorily prior to x's choosing A, then were x not to have NDLF-ly chosen A in C, p would still have been true.

 

A consequence of this is the following PAP:

Thesis 2: If x NDLF-ly chooses A in C, then x's failing to NDLF-ly choose A in C is logically compatible with any proposition that is explanatorily prior to x's NDLF-ly choosing A in C.

 

The argument from Thesis 1 to Thesis 2 is this. Suppose Thesis 2 is false. Then we have a proposition p explanatorily prior to x's NDLF-ly choosing A in C such that p entails x's NDLF-ly choosing A in C. But then x's failing to NDLF-ly choose A in C entails ~p. It is obvious that if x NDLF-ly chooses A in C, then x's NDLF-ly choosing A in C is not logically necessary. But if u entails v, then at least if u is contingent, were u to hold, v would hold. So, were x to fail to NDLF-ly choose A in C, then ~p would hold. But by Thesis 1, it follows that were x to fail to NDLF-ly choose A in C, then p would. But these two conditionals cannot both be true if the antecedent is possible, as it is. So Thesis 2 cannot be false.)

 

Now on to the argument. If Molinism holds, then the following scenario is possible:

Scenario 1: God believes that were he to place agent x in circumstances C, the agent would NDLF-ly choose A in C, and for that reason God in fact places agent x in circumstances C.

 

Now, assume that if p and q are explanatorily prior to r, so is the conjunction p&q. Suppose Scenario 1 holds. Let p be the proposition that x is in C, and let q be the proposition that God believes that were God to place x in C, x would NDLF-ly choose A in C. Then p and q are explanatorily prior to x NDLF-ly choosing A in C. Hence so is their conjunction. Hence, their conjunction does not entail x's NDLF-ly choosing A in C (by Thesis 2). But, necessarily, God believes only truths. So, q entails that were God to place x in C, x would NDLF-ly choose A in C. By modus ponens, p&q entails that x NDLF-ly chooses A in C. Hence, p&q both does and does not entail that x NDLF-ly chooses A in C, which is a contradiction.

 

This is, of course, a version of Adams' circularity-in-the-order-of-explanation argument. Strictly speaking, it doesn't show that God can't know conditionals of free will, but only that it is incoherent to suppose him to act on that knowledge in the way indicated in Scenario 1.

 

----------------------

 

This is what always got me about Molinism. They agree on LFW and what it means (i.e., we’re free with respect to choosing A in C just in case our choosing A in C and our not choosing A in C are equally explainable in terms of C and all the antecedent conditions leading up to C). I always thought this was their tightening the noose around their own necks, because according to Molinists, God’s providence (God’s guaranteeing that he gets A and not ~A in C) depends just on God’s bringing about C. Put me in C and I “would” do A (so says the CCF). But given LFW, there’s a world in which I do ~A in C. So C is no guarantee of my doing A. C equally explains my doing ~A. So how can C be providentially useful to God’s decreeing a world in which I choose A in C? Well, Craig would say, “The CCF that says if you were in C you WOULD do A freely” is what informs God’s decree. But this CCF seems incompatible with the definition of LFW. But then like you said, we’re just back to Ockham vs Piece.

 

Tom


KIXYTΘEMTA

Post Edited (Tom) : 1/27/2010 1:34:08 AM (GMT-6)

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Alan Rhoda
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Date Joined May 2002
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   Posted 1/27/2010 10:13 AM (GMT -6)    Quote This PostAlert An Admin About This Post.
Hi Tom,

Thanks so much for your engaging reply. My argument is, I suppose, similar to Pruss's and to Adams' explanatory circularity objection. I think my framing it in terms of chances is distinct, though.

Here's the gist of the problem: The truth values of CCFs is (it would seem) explanatorily prior to God creative decree, while God's creative decree is (it would seem) explanatorily prior to all creaturely actions, free or otherwise. Moreover, the CCFs plus God's decree (or even just God's decree) is sufficient to pick out a unique causally possible future as "the" actual one (or the one which is going to become actual). Call that actual future "Omega". Given these assumptions, the following argument is sound:

(a) CH(Omega | God decrees Omega) = 1
(b) CH(God decrees Omega) = 1
Therefore,
(c) CH(Omega) = 1

But this is to say that Omega is the only causally possible future. Hence, there are no future contingents.

Similarly, if explanatory priority is transitive (as it would seem to be), then a similar argument follows from the truth values of CCF's. Let "Peter" be the CCF saying that if placed in C Peter would (freely) deny Christ.

(d) CH(Peter denies Christ | "Peter" is true) = 1
(e) CH("Peter" is true) = 1
Therefore
(f) CH(Peter denies Christ) = 1

But this is to say that Peter was determined to choose Christ. The Molinist's insertion of the word "freely" in the CCF is utterly gratuitous. What matters is the explanatory priority of the CCF.

Molinists must, therefore, reject a premise in each case. The only ones that seem open for them to reject are (b) and (d). But (b)'s truth follows from the assumption that God's decree is explanatorily prior to (and thus explanatorily independent of) creaturely actions. So Molinists must reject that. If they want to preserve future contingency then they have to say that God's creative decree is explanatorily dependent on creaturely free choices. And (d)'s truth follows from the assumption that the truth of "Peter" is explanatorily prior to (and thus explanatorily independent of) Peter's actions. So Molinists must reject that. If they want to preserve Peter's freedom they have to say that the truth value of "Peter" is explanatorily dependent on what Peter does.

Now, explanatory dependence is stronger than counterfactual dependence. Even the theological determinist can allow that God's decree is counterfactually dependent on creaturely actions. So merely appealing to counterfactual dependence does not suffice to secure future contingency. Something more needs to be added, and it is the idea that creaturely actions "bring about" God's having decreed what he does and that Peter's actions "bring about" the truth of "Peter".

But this move, completely guts Molinism of any providential usefulness. If God only knows "Peter" because Peter makes the choice he does, then Peter's actually making that choice is explanatorily prior to God's middle knowledge and to God's creative decree. Hence, it's "too late" for God to do anything about it.

In short, Molinists are faced with the prospect of either losing future contingency or losing any providential edge over open theism.

Post Edited (Alan Rhoda) : 1/27/2010 3:45:03 PM (GMT-6)

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Tom
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Total Posts : 10353
 
   Posted 1/27/2010 10:21 AM (GMT -6)    Quote This PostAlert An Admin About This Post.
Alan: But this is to say that Peter was determined to choose Christ. The Molinist's insertion of the word "freely" in the CCF is utterly gratuitous. What matters is the explanatory prior of the CCF.

Tom: Exactly.

Thanks for the clarity!

Tom


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