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Date Joined Jun 2001
Total Posts : 516
| Posted 6/28/2001 4:22 PM (GMT -6) |   |
Still_unsure
05/21/01 11:49 AM
Chaos Theory supports determinism?
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Doc,
It seems there are as many who claim Chaos theory SUPPORTS determinism as there are who claim it doesn't. (for an example go to
http://DOGMA.FREE.fr/txt/JB-Chaos.htm) How can we know who is correct?
Posted Originally From: Christus Victor Ministries
Still_unsure
05/20/01 7:14 AM
RE: Chaos Theory supports detrminism?
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Sorry for the typo in the title.
Posted Originally From: Christus Victor Ministries
GregBoyd
05/20/01 10:50 PM
Chaos Theory supports determinism?
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Great question Still Unsure.
For those unfamiliar with it, chaos theory basically stipulates that the smallest of alterations in the "initial conditions" of a sufficient complex system can result in major alterations in the subsequent state of that system. Since we can never arrive at "initial conditions" in the real world (we'd have to know all the variables going back to "the beginning") this means that we will in principle never be able to exhaustively predict the behavior of complex systems. Hence, for example, we can in general predict when (say) a tornado will occur, but there are too many interconnected variables to ever predict precisely when a tornado will occur, how it will behave once it forms, etc.
In my book Satan and the Problem of Evil I use chaos theory (and its cousins "complex systems theory" and "emergent properties theory") to render intelligible the claim that the world can have an order, and the future can be in general predictable, without God meticulously controlling the variables. I also think it provides an excellent model to help us understand why the world, and God's interaction with it, appear so arbitrary. In a word, there are too many interacting unknown variables for us to understand why (for example) God intervenes sometimes but not others.
Having said this, chaos theory itself doesn't support an open universe. It shows why the universe is open from our finite perspective, but it neither supports nor argues against the claim that the future is truly, ontologically open (and thus known as open by an omniscient God). Some theorist, such as Polkinghorne, have been working at combining chaos theory with quantum theory, in which case it might be used to support the open view of the future. But to date the theories have been controversial.
So, in short, in my view chaos theory does provide a good analogical model for how you can in principle have a world that is orderly without being meticulously predictable, even to God. But it is only an analogical model. It can't, to date, be used to ground the view ontologically.
Blessings
Doc
Chaos theory has to date been mostly worked out on a deterministic model.
Posted Originally From: Christus Victor Ministries
GregBoyd
05/20/01 10:53 PM
RE: Chaos Theory supports determinism?
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Ignore that last line. It was a remnant of a deleted section.
AS long as I'm back on line, might I just say that for all readers in the Twin Cities Area, YOU NEED TO GO TO A HEART OF THE CITIES CELEBRATION. I just got back from the St. Paul celebration, and it is God's heart for the church. WOW.
What has this got to do with chaos theory? Nothing. But I'm just feeling blessed.
Posted Originally From: Christus Victor Ministries
adiaphora
(Community Owner)
05/21/01 10:19 AM
RE: RE: Chaos Theory supports detrminism?
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Note to Still_unsure, Doc, and everyone else:
If you realize you made a mistake on something you posted, you can edit your own post by clicking on the little icon that appears under your log-in name in the left-hand corner of your post (it looks like a little piece of paper with a pencil).
~ a d i a p h o r a
Posted Originally From: Christus Victor Ministries
Still_unsure
05/21/01 9:41 PM
RE: Chaos Theory supports determinism?
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Hi Doc:
Here is an argument against determinism I cut from an article I read.
"To begin to understand several senses of determinism in complex systems, we will look at four levels of inquiry, moving from simpler to more complex.
Differential Dynamics: Are differential equations sufficient for description of the system? In this system the future depends on the present in a mathematically specificative way. This description cannot rely on any chance, probabilities or averages within the subsystems--it must be calculable precisely on the microlevel. The proposal is: use mathematical expressions to model the changes of physical systems; seek to understand or predict the future by relating it to the past with mathematical rules. Perhaps these rules will provide strictly unique implications and perhaps not, but keep trying to explain or predict until you cannot any more. This is based on a cosmological belief in the notion that the next moment in the evolution of the universe flows out of this one according to intelligible rules.
Unique Evolution: Is the evolution of the system uniquely fixed once we specify the state of the system at any one moment? If two worlds agree on everything at one time, they must agree on everything at all other times. This layer of determinism holds that the complete instantaneous description of a deterministic system fixes the past and future with no alternatives. On the level of a metaphysical presupposition, this simply means that the universe as a whole is a fully deterministic system.
Value Determinateness: Do all properties of the system have well-defined real values? After all, if there are properties whose values are spread out or somehow indistinct, the system would seem insufficiently set, fixed, specified, and determin ed by the laws of physics.
Total Predictability: Is the system predictable by a superior intelligence? This would mean predictability to an all-powerful intelligence or computational scheme, given complete information of instantaneous conditions and the complete set of p hysical laws. Additionally, there is Popper's notion of metaphysical determinism, which says that all events in this world are fixed, or unalterable, or predetermined. It does not assert that they are known to anybody, or predictable by scientific means. But it asserts that the future is as little changeable as the past. The future is fixed now and for all time, even though the above four layers of determinism could fail to hold. This notion actually seems more concerned with the present truth values of future-tensed statements, but it does illustrate that predetermined is not the same as predestined.
Kellert's argument against determinism rests upon uncertainty:
Quantum mechanics says a one-particle system cannot be said to have a point-like state in state space: the totality of physical information about it suffices only to identify it as a patch of finite area with a lower bound on its size.
Chaos theory says that two otherwise identical chaotic systems with slightly different initial conditions will eventually diverge greatly, no matter how small the initial difference.
Therefore:
Two physically identical chaotic systems with identical boundary conditions and laws and with their one particle in the same physical state at t0 can be in different states at t > t0.
That is, determinism as uniqueness of evolution fails to hold."
Do you know if this argument has been successfully refuted?
Just curious.
Rob
Posted Originally From: Christus Victor Ministries
GregBoyd
05/22/01 5:49 AM
RE: RE: Chaos Theory supports determinism?
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Still Unsure:
The argument you review is precisely what Polkinghore and several others are advocating. I know of no refutation of it. Of course, some quantum theorists (but not most) argue that the indeterminism of quantum physics is merely epistemological. But in saying this they are expressing a metaphysical presupposition, not a scientifically founded conclusion.
Doc
To Adiaphora: Thanks for the tip about editing. But the problem, you see, is that when you go back and edit, all the spacing collapses. So you have to go back and put into all the paragraph breaks. For very lazy people like myself, its sometimes just easier to write a one sentence disclaimer -- especially when pressed for time, as I was when I wrote that (my wife was saying, "Come on honey, get to bed!" )(:
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